Monday, May 30, 2011

Two TAA Thought Experiments

Richard Epstein's typically insightful comments on TAA got me thinking more about the abject irrationality of a special program that compensates workers for economic activity (free trade) that overwhelmingly benefits the nation as a whole.  As you'll recall, Epstein wrote:
So conduct this little thought experiment: what would be the state of play in the United States if every time a new firm opened up in one state it was required to fund trade assistance for workers at other firms who lost their jobs as a result? The need to compensate incumbent workers would drive out all new firms, and thus entrench inefficient firms in a near monopoly position. It is for that reason that the proper response is always to ignore these losses, and to deal with the question of unemployment through a generalized system of unemployment insurance that, of course, has massive difficulties of its own.
The "international-versus-intranational protectionism" thought experiment is a favorite of AEI's Mark Perry (among others), and he frequently applies it, with great effect, to demonstrate that protectionism across national borders is just as harmful and irrational as protectionism across state (or county or city or neighborhood) borders.

So it got me thinking: if TAA is, as its advocates in the White House and Congress routinely claim, an absolutely essential "core value" of American trade and economic policy, then why don't we have state-level TAA when, say, freely traded imports of Florida oranges into New York end up putting the Empire State's nascent orange growers out of work, or when imports of South Carolinian BMWs displace Michigan autoworkers?  I mean, if we need to compensate workers due to import competition across national borders, then why don't we do the same thing across state and local borders?

Because it's clearly a ridiculous policy, that's why.  (I know, I know, I shouldn't give our politicians any ideas.)

Perry often demonstrates this ridiculousness by creatively converting a news story on barriers to international trade into one on barriers to intranational trade.  I haven't seen Perry do one on TAA, so with apologies in advance for stealing his awesome idea, I think a simple example is in order.  Here's a sympathetic article on Sen. Sherrod Brown's (D-OH) fight to extend TAA back in February.  Now let's re-imagine the story with state-level TAA (STAA) based on free trade among the US States:
One Ohio lawmaker plans to make the extension of a program that benefits Ohio workers displaced due to free trade among the American states one of his top priorities during this congressional session, according to The Youngstown Vindicator.

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) plans to begin lobbying fellow members on an extension of state trade-adjustment assistance benefits, which provides Ohio workers displaced due to trade with other American states with reemployment assistance and training, income support and job search and relocation allowances.

Brown said that STAA benefits are “lifelines for tens of thousands of Americans Ohioans who, through no fault of their own, lost their job or their pensions and health-care benefits due to imports of goods and services from places like New York, Alabama and California.” 
With a new Republican majority in the House, however, Brown acknowledges that it will be an uphill battle....

Passing an extension of STAA benefits would be a good step toward helping those Ohio workers that have fallen on hard times due to America’s failed state-level trade policies. But to continue with those trade policies at a time with unemployment already hovering around 10 percent would be foolish.

“We can’t pass trade agreements allow imports from other US states that undermine Ohio workers, and then turn our backs on those workers when they lose their jobs,” Brown said.
Pretty silly, isn't it?  As Americans, we inherently understand the benefits that state-level import competition and specialization bring our economy, so we naturally reject policies to inhibit such helpful economic activity, despite the fact that it necessarily causes some job losses along the way.  But when we move beyond US borders, our brains shut off and the government meddling and handouts begin.

But, hey, let's not stop there and instead conduct another thought experiment to further reveal the irrationality of both TAA and the Obama administration's current TAA/FTA demands.  As economists like Cafe Hayek's Don Boudreaux frequently note, the beneficial job churn associated with import competition is no different from that associated with technology gains:
Would it have been appropriate, for example, for the White House to prevent Americans from buying iPods and Kindles until and unless Congress funded the retraining of workers who lost their jobs at Tower Records and Border’s? Should government have stopped automakers from improving the quality of their vehicles until and unless the public fisc was tapped for funds to retrain auto mechanics and tow-truck drivers? Ought government restrict consumers’ access to Lasik surgery until and unless taxpayers pay to retrain workers who make eyeglasses, contact lenses, and saline solution?
In short, people lose jobs due to import competition and they lose jobs due to new technologies (a lot more of the latter than the former, by the way), and while those job losses are obviously tough for the affected workers, American society as a whole is clearly better off by letting the free market work.  So why do we treat globalization so differently than mechanization?  Boudreaux reasons that it's because "the only thing unique about international trade is its ability to be demagogued by politicians seeking votes from the economically uninformed," so let's go back to that Sherrod Brown TAA article and help inform the distressingly-large group of uninformed Americans with a little more creative editing:
One Ohio lawmaker plans to make the extension of a program that benefits workers displaced due to free trade robots and other innovations one of his top priorities during this congressional session, according to The Youngstown Vindicator.

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) plans to begin lobbying fellow members on an extension of robot trade-adjustment assistance benefits, which provides workers displaced due to trade new technologies with reemployment assistance and training, income support and job search and relocation allowances.

Brown said that RTAA benefits are “lifelines for tens of thousands of Americans who, through no fault of their own, lost their job or their pensions and health-care benefits due to robots or other innovations.” 
With a new Republican majority in the House, however, Brown acknowledges that it will be an uphill battle....

Passing an extension of RTAA benefits would be a good step toward helping those that have fallen on hard times due to America’s failed mechanization trade policies. But to continue with those trade policies innovating and modernizing at a time with unemployment already hovering around 10 percent would be foolish.

“We can’t pass trade agreements create new technologies that undermine Ohio workers, and then turn our backs on those workers when they lose their jobs,” Brown said.

Hopefully after we've conducted these thought experiments it's easier to see why the White House stance on TAA - i.e., it is the multi-billion dollar price that America must pay to get new, economically-beneficial trade agreements with Panama, Korea and Colombia - is so distressing.  It would be patently offensive and irrational for the President to block intrastate trade or to prohibit further technological advances until Congress agreed to fund workers allegedly displaced by that trade/mechanization, and it's just as offensive and absurd for the White House to do it for international trade and TAA.

Yet here we are.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

What a fun thought experiment. But it misses some essential differences between intra-state trade and international trade.

First, when a worker from Ohio loses his job making widgets to a new widget factory in Alabama, the worker can move to Alabama to try and get the same job. This is not so when the new widget factory is in China.

Second, when a worker from Ohio loses his job to a worker in Alabama, the net loss of jobs to the USA is zero. Also, from a lobbying perspective, the competition between the representatives from Alabama and Ohio will effectively cancel out any need to pass a special TAA for the newly unemployed Ohio worker. This is not the case when the new widget factory is in China, and there is a net loss of jobs to the USA. Also, from a lobbying perspective, the Ohio representatives crying foul on behalf of the worker which will win any day in Washington against some intellectual think tank lobbying on behalf of abstract notions of free trade.

Yes, yes, I know, the savings to consumers from cheaper Chinese imports allows someone somewhere in the USA to somehow create some job for somebody else. It's probably true, but this story is a hard sell in Washington. It's sort of like Palsgraf. The causal connection between the specific cheaper imports of widgets and some new job somewhere is just too attenuated for people to get excited about it.

Scott Lincicome said...

Hi Anon,

I think your comment mostly answers itself - no one doubts the political attractiveness of jingoism and snake oil protectionism (it's public choice 101). But it's the economics, rationality and morality of protectionism, and TAA, that I'm questioning here.

I actually think your points 1 and 2 have confused things a little (this is perhaps my fault for giving a bad example). The perfect interstate-intrastate parallel would be one in which the OHIO state government provided TAA for OHIO workers who lose jobs due to import competition from Alabama or any other US state. Thus, labor mobility outside of Ohio or aggregate US employment is irrelevant from the state-level perspective (again, my Sherrod Brown example probably fed this error; my bad).

Nothing you've mentioned changes the undeniable fact that if interstate trade benefits OHIO more than it hurts OHIO, then state-level policies to help affected workers are harmful and irrational. The same goes for international trade - if its benefits to the USA are greater than its harms (and no one without an agenda disputes this), then national policies to subsidize the harmed are equally bad.

Thanks for commenting.

Anonymous said...

I disagree with your assertion that it is "harmful and irrational" to compensate individuals harmed by state policies whenever the benefit of such policies outweigh the harms. We do this all the time. Consider, for example, public takings - where we compensate individual landowners for taking their land to build a wider highway because the widened highway will lead to a greater benefit. In some situations, when the government adopts a policy that that leads to a greater economic pie at the expense of harm to a limited number of individuals, it is appropriate to compensate the individuals for their harm. I would submit that when the USA agrees to a policy of expanded free trade with another nation and, as a result, a limited number of U.S. individual are harmed, it is appropriate to compensate those individuals for their harm.

And it's not just jingoism to assert there is a difference between free trade among U.S. states and free trade between the USA and other countries. First, you have to look at the starting point. Free trade among U.S. states has been around for many generations and is already part of the expected bargain for any worker. It's part of the Lockean social compact we have in the USA. That's not the case, say, with free trade between USA and Columbia. When there is a change in policy that widens free trade between USA and Columbia - i.e., a change in the expect bargain - it's fair to expect some compensation for the change. In addition, there is just a critical difference between (i) losing a job to a worker from another state which is in the same union of states which have explicitly aligned their fundamental interests and goals (e.g., democracy, equality, freedom, military security); and (2) losing a job to another nation which has interests and goals that are not so aligned.

Scott Lincicome said...

Hi anon,

Maybe I should have been more precise in my response, but your example is inapt because it conflates government action by force or threat of force with government inaction (i.e., simply letting the free market work). Public takings are the former, and they are the government’s proactive deprivation of a man’s property and liberty. Thus, compensation by government is absolutely required. Free trade is clearly the latter situation, and it is simply the government’s expansion and protection, rather than deprivation, of property/liberty. Indeed, an FTA (well, the tariff provisions, at least) is simply the government’s elimination of market-distorting barriers; the government does not require anyone to do anything – it’s just getting out of the way. In such a case, there is no logical reason why the government should compensate people who are indirectly affected by others’ free economic choices.

As I noted in my original blog post, “free trade” is just like mechanization in this sense – it’s the free market at work, nothing more. The government isn’t forcing anyone to buy or sell anything. With that in mind, let’s say the US banned robots and then, years later, passed legislation allowing American manufacturers to use them. Should the government then compensate the workers who become unemployed because of the clearly-beneficial lifting of that clearly-harmful ban? Of course not.

On your latter point, you again provide only political, rather than economic or moral, arguments. But let’s address them anyway:

1) Just because a discrete minority has become accustomed to the government forcibly subsidizing its existence at the expense of all other citizens (which is what protectionism does for certain US workers versus all others) doesn’t mean that that interest group has earned some sort of “right” to the government subsidy in perpetuity. Such a notion would mean, for example, that US ethanol producers now have a right to “some compensation” when (if?) the US eliminates ethanol subsidies and tariffs. Would that be “fair”? Hardly. Indeed, last time I checked, ethanol subsidies and tariffs – or any form of government-induced market distortion – weren’t part of the Lockean social contract. But, hey, maybe you’d like to defend that position?

2) On your second point, beyond the fact that your “critical difference” is purely political rather than economic/moral, I just have some questions. How do you or the federal government know that my “interests and goals” are aligned with those of a worker in Ohio or Bogota? Do you really think that 536 folks in Washington, DC are better than the free market at determining whether a buyer and seller share the same “goals and interests,” regardless of their physical location? Or isn’t the transaction itself the purest – nay, only - indicator of whether the “goals and interests” of that buyer and a seller are really aligned? And how often does “democracy and freedom” play into your daily business transactions anyway, and if it’s often, do you really think the government should force that odd calculus on the rest of us? And are you really using a subjective, communal desire for “freedom” to justify compensating workers who directly benefited from the government’s forcible deprivation of that community’s economic freedoms?